A new horizon
The unprecedented scale of the Covid-19 pandemic has touched the lives of every New Zealander and the implications of the national lockdown will be felt for years to come.
That is the prediction from researchers for New Zealand pan-produce collective United Fresh New Zealand Incorporated.
In the nation's grocery aisles, “there has been a significant shift in consumer behaviour which has shaped our pick of the top trends to watch for in 2021”, say researchers.
Among these trends are the following —
The Ultimate Health Kick
Not surprisingly, health and wellbeing top the list of concerns for shoppers across the country.
Foods that boost immunity and those that are viewed as nourishing the body and the mind are expected to be the most sought-after as Kiwis re-prioritise health as their number one goal.
Over 20 percent of shoppers are actively seeking out immunity-boosting food and beverage options. Fresh fruit and vegetables, with their natural “health halo”, are top of the list.
New additives such as collagen and whey protein are likely to appear more frequently as well.
Food hygiene is also an emerging trend as shoppers express concern about the safety of the items in their trolley.
Ironically, the popularity of plastic-wrapped produce has increased in the search for hygienically-disinfected “low-touch” groceries despite the environmental concerns
THE BIG SHOP IS BACK
For several years now the trend towards shopping more often for smaller amounts has been number one on the list of consumer behaviour changes. Covid-19 has stopped that in its tracks with nearly 20 percent of Kiwis choosing to return to the “big shop”.
No more regular top-ups, no shopping across multiple stores. We've continued with the lockdown rules of visiting the supermarket only when we need to.
In fact, research by Foodstuffs shows Kiwis are making around 50 percent fewer visits to stores each week despite our lack of community transmission.
ONLINE AND ONGOING
In 2019, less than 10 percent of Kiwis shopped for groceries online.
Thanks to Covid-19 and a nationwide lockdown, those numbers have surged to nearly 30 percent.
Shoppers that had never tried an online weekly shop have become converts and such a rapid increase has led to significant changes for the grocery trade.
Based on overseas examples, those numbers are set to increase even more with online grocery shopping up 25 percent in the US and 40 percent in Asia.
The online trend is likely to see a reduction in the number of food stores, perhaps as many as half closing and many being repurposed into “dark stores”, operating as a warehouse for either click-and-collect grocery shoppers or home delivery services.
Online shopping trends have also enabled wholesalers to enter the retail landscape offering “farm to door” delivery services.
Ordering a box of apples direct from the orchard enables shoppers to connect directly with the grower.
The resurgence of a Buy NZ Made ethos has been one of the pleasant results of the pandemic.
Kiwis quickly discovered the importance of locally grown food as bags of flour disappeared off shelves at record speeds.
The unreliability of imports, growing costs and limited capacity have driven shoppers to seek out local alternatives.
Buying local means a meaningful connection with food producers which is “a reassuring development of trust in confusing and uncertain times”.
Transparency of supply is a growing trend worldwide, with as many as 60 percent of shoppers seeking greater knowledge about where their food is sourced from.
HOME SWEET HOME
One would think we'd had enough of our homes after lockdown but the trend is clear, Kiwis are staying in, cooking from scratch and ordering takeaways rather than dining out.
Nearly 75 percent of New Zealanders have indicated they are eating out less than they did before Covid-19, with financial constraints and a desire to avoid crowds seeing us prefer a quiet night in and a gourmet home-cooked meal over outsourced entertainment.
As this trend continues, expect to see more pre-cut fresh produce on offer as Kiwis look to streamline cooking and a wider variety of pre-prepared heat-and-eat meals in the supermarket chiller to meet the demand for healthy, convenient and fresh solutions for dinner-time.
Specific diets such as Keto and Paleo will also be a feature of these supermarket offerings catering to growing interest in alternative eating patterns
THE BRAND CONNECTION
Consumers in 2021 will be increasingly critical of the brands that they support.
Long-term loyalty is increasingly important in the marketplace as is the perception of a brand's performance during the pandemic.
In the supermarket aisle, home brands are growing rapidly — as much as three times faster than other brands in some categories. Building trust will be just as essential for traditional brands as it will for new brands entering the market..
HUNGER HURTS US ALL
The United Nations has sounded the alarm that 2021 will be far worse for vulnerable whanau than 2020.
Food insecurity is a growing problem for Kiwis, made worse by scarcity and supply chain issues due to Covid-19.
Despite our local growers producing some of the world's best produce, getting much-needed quality fruit and vegetables to those struggling financially has been an issue.
Programmes such as Fruit in Schools will be even more important in 2021 as we work to feed every one of our team of 5 million.
THE PLANET PROBLEM
While the focus on 2020 shifted to saving people across the globe, 2021 will see us redirect energy towards saving the planet.
Climate change has taken a backseat to Covid-19 but its effects have not gone away and the need to address issues of sustainability are just as pressing.
Millennials and Gen Z are driving the move to sustainable practices, with over 80 percent of all shoppers changing their purchase preferences based on the social responsibility, inclusiveness, or environmental impact shown by a brand.
Sustainable and regenerative agriculture is the gold standard that New Zealand growers are working towards, a conservation and rehabilitation approach to farming which focuses on the health of the soil, biodiversity, effective water use and enhancing the natural ecosystem.
Consumers will continue to seek out food and beverages with an organic pedigree, with winegrowers in particular likely to see significant growth throughout 2021 for wines classified as organic or natural.