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Covid facts disregarded


Re: Lockdowns cause mortality spike, not Covid-19.

Does Ms Williams also believe that eating ice cream is a leading cause of drownings in New Zealand? After all, it is well known that as ice cream sales increase, so do drowning rates: yes, one of the well known examples where correlation is not causation.

Her major reference is an unpublished essay by someone who has not done “extensive research” but merely drawn upon public information to support his pre-formed opinion on lockdown and civil liberties. His association with a “civil liberties association” is a bit of a clue! He has used all the tricks to attempt to demonstrate causation (scales of graphs, unlinked data) while stating 50-year-old reports as the basis for coronavirus behaviour. Yes, the behaviour of a virus that was unknown less than seven months ago is demonstrated by a report from 1961. In short, Rancourt's writing is “it's just another flu”, showing complete disregard (or more likely, ignorance) for the transmission and epidemiology of the SARS coronavirus 2 — a virus that is often spread by someone even before they know they're infected (if they ever do have symptoms).

To say that those who died of Covid-19 in rest homes would have died soon anyway is callous to the extreme and once again demonstrates ignorance on the transmission paths of this novel virus. You are privileged Ms Williams and shouting it from your safe haven. Respiratory viruses are not equitable and research has shown they unfairly burden Maori and Pacific Islanders in NZ. And this research? This is research that we call “published”, “peer-reviewed” and “accepted”.

And thanks for the quote. Here's one in return from Abraham Lincoln: “Don't believe everything you read on the internet just because it has my photo next to a quote.”

John Mackay

Leave a Reply to Lara MEYER Cancel reply

  1. S. Williams says:

    Mr. Mackay either didn’t read the research of Dr. Rancourt or has difficulty in comprehending it. Dr. Rancourt has a solid argument based on REAL DATA. The all-cause mortality data, which is devoid of any bias or conjecture or subject to any interpretation. After all a death is a death and the figures are published data.
    Indeed, his brilliance is that in choosing solid all-cause mortality data, he is saving us all from fantasies and false hypes such as those the likes of Mr. Mackay would have us believed.
    Each one of your statements, supposedly to discredit his research, really applies to your own arguments. You need to take your own advice re correlation doesn’t mean causation.
    It is you Mr. Mackay, whose “pre-formed” opinion is preventing you to see and comprehend real data, which is obvious to anyone else! All your smear tactics and fluffy opinion is not going to change the real data that Dr. Rancourt has presented.
    He never said “it’s just another flu”. Indeed, he has shown it was the lockdown not any kind of Virus!
    And again, it is you who shows disrespect for those who died a lonely death as a direct result of lockdown or whose death was hastened by the lockdown.
    And if you had read my original letter or Dr. Rancourt’s research, you would have seen that we both stated that the lockdown affected the vulnerable most.
    If you have problem comprehending Dr. Rancourt’s research, perhaps you can listen to him explaining it in this interview with Danish physicist/mathematician, Jim Larsen. Please do watch, US, UK, Eu and Canadian data are analysed:
    You also conveniently overlook that those computer models that were used to justify the lockdowns were not “published, peer-reviewed or accepted”. Indeed, many independent epidemiologists, medical doctors, scientists and immunologists warned about folly of such computer models based on erroneous assumptions from the beginning. They were proven right and those computer models were proven wrong.
    Dr. Rancourt, however, uses real data, not false computer models.

    1. John Mackay says:

      Real data? A lot of Rancourt’s writing is supposition and use of 50-year-old data to claim that SARS-CoV-2 behaves the same way.
      Your reply is pretty much ‘not me, you’. Ho hum . . .
      But you *are* correct in one thing. I did have some difficulty in comprehending his report – difficulty in comprehending how he could make some fantastic leaps in guesswork and supposition. But scales of graphs (eg timing of pandemic announcement) can do that. Plot the confirmed detections of SARS-CoV-2 virus and then see how the pandemic announcement correlates.
      And the talk about immune response. You may recall that this was formerly called ‘novel coronavirus’. Novel means ‘new’ – as in ‘new to science’. We have no innate immunity to this.
      Sharp COVID infection peaks? Yes, and exponential rise in cases (as was happening in NZ) was halted by the early lockdown, breaking the transmission chain. Unfortunately some countries look to have relaxed too early and infection rates (and deaths) are once again rising sharply. Exhibit 1: the USA.

  2. Lara MEYER says:

    Dr Rancourt was removed from his post at Ottawa University because he inflated the grades of several students and altered the topic of his courses without consultation.
    His research papers regarding the use of masks as being futile in the fight against Covid 19 transmission have been removed from Research Gate. Those of us engaged in higher education in the form of post graduate study know that Research Gate is a robust portal with very high standards. Dr Rancourt must have breached the standards and expectations of the site. His work was obviously not up to par.
    Those transgressions aside…
    I find it difficult to reconcile the deaths of 22 elderly NZ people with your assertion Ms Williams, that these people actually died because we locked down to protect each other.
    One just has to look at the Covid 19 health catastrophe rapidly accelerating in the United States to understand that people are not dying there because they are being asked to practice social distancing at this time. They are dying of Covid 19.
    As I write this, the death toll today in the US directly due to having Covid 19 is 250 souls. Ours is only 22 souls lost. Thankfully.
    Lockdown affects vulnerable people, no doubt, but so does Covid 19.
    By your logic, should we open our borders and learn to live with this virus?
    If we don’t protect ourselves from this terrible sickness, we won’t have a functioning economy anyway.
    I do understand this pandemic is like nothing any of us have experienced and it is very hard to know what is the right course of action.
    I think we should pay attention to the cases of real people who are getting sick and dying right now of Covid 19 and put less emphasis on computer modelling.

  3. Denis Rancourt says:

    Your spin is remarkable Mr. Mackay. Thankfully, readers can read my article for themselves, and decide:

    Maybe a video-interview explanation would help you?

    1. John Mackay says:

      Thanks for the compliment Mr Rancourt. But just using the available knowledge to date (albeit limited) – not misinterpreting data to support a civil liberty claim. So nothing remarkable – at least on my part.
      Might I suggest you focus on the situation closer to home than here in NZ? They need a lot of help there.
      You and Ms Williams’ story can be best summed up by ‘What did we need the sunscreen for? We didn’t get burnt.’

    2. Lara MEYER says:

      Dear Dr Rancourt,
      Although I was only able to have a brief read of your paper, I did notice you regularly referred to the mortality rates during the winter flu season.
      It is summer in the northern hemisphere and Covid 19 is rampaging through the Americas. I imagine we will see a surge in deaths because of the uncontrolled spread of Covid 19 in a few weeks.
      It is winter here in NZ, your paper suggests we should be seeing a spike of winter flu cases here right now.
      Are we? I don’t believe we are.
      Also, you mentioned immune compromised homicide/ mortality rates. You mean the sick or elderly. Sorry mate, most sane Kiwis don’t think those of our people are expendable.
      Lockdown and isolation saved many lives here in Godzone.
      Case closed aye?